Abstract
Background: Physician communication of lifetime risk prediction can improve patient understanding of atrial fibrillation (AF) risk and motivate lifestyle changes and preventive measures. Therefore, our objective was to assess how physicians perceive short-term and lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation (AF), using a survey. Methods: We invited American Heart Association (AHA) members to complete an online survey via email from November 2-22, 2021. Respondents were randomized to one of 32 vignettes characterized by AF risk factors (height, weight, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, history of heart failure, and history of myocardial infarction). Respondents were further randomized to either estimate the 5-year or lifetime AF risk on a 0-100% scale with 10% intervals (e.g., “10-19%”) or were shown the predicted 5-year or lifetime AF risk value and asked to pick the correct interpretation in a multiple-choice question. Results: Of 11,330 AHA professional members who received the emailed survey, 109 (1%) physicians responded (mean age 51 years, 33% women) (Table). Most respondents estimated the 5-year AF risk correctly (7/9, 78%) but none accurately estimated the lifetime risk (0/18, 0%). Most respondents interpreted the predicted 5-year risk correctly (21/28, 75%) but about half of respondents misinterpreted the lifetime risk (14/25, 56%). Conclusions: In a small sample of physicians, few respondents correctly estimated and interpreted the lifetime risk of AF, suggesting that physicians may not be familiar with this risk format. It may be necessary to study the frequency and manner in which physicians communicate lifetime risk of AF.
Published Version
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