Abstract P178: Incremental Value of Charlson Comorbidity Index Over Disease-Centric Score in Heart Failure

Abstract

Introduction: Heart Failure (HF) is a syndrome of high comorbidity and mortality. The impact of comorbidities on life expectancy in HF is well studied, but guideline-recommended disease-centric risk scores such as the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score may not fully account for the effect of comorbidities. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (Charlson) is a validated measure that quantifies the prognostic impact of comorbidities. Objective: To examine the incremental value of Charlson over MAGGIC in predicting death in HF. Methods: In a population-based HF cohort, we computed MAGGIC and Charlson scores using electronically linked medical records. Patients were divided based on ejection fraction (EF) into reduced [EF <50%, HFrEF] or preserved [EF ≥50%, HFpEF]. Cox regression was performed to assess the association between the risk scores and mortality. The incremental value of Charlson over MAGGIC was tested by calculating the area under the ROC [receiver operating characteristic] curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: We studied 1,388 patients with HF validated using the Framingham criteria (mean age, 75±13 years, 48% female, mean EF, 49±17%). The median Charlson was 7.0 (interquartile range 5.0-9.0) and was higher in HFpEF than HFrEF (7.0 [5.0-9.0] vs. 6.0 [4.0-8.3] respectively. Over a median follow-up of 13.9 years (13.3-14.2), mortality was 17.4% (95% CI, 15.4 -19.3%) and 36.8% (95% CI, 34.2-39.3%) at 1, and 3 years respectively. In regression analysis, increasing MAGGIC and Charlson were independently associated with death (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.08-1.11 and HR,1.22, 95% CI 1.20-1.24, both p <0.001) irrespective of EF. Discrimination ability was improved by adding Charlson over MAGGIC (Table), reaching statistical significance at 3 years. Conclusion: In this HF cohort, the Charlson index provided an added value over MAGGIC in predicting the risk of death at 3 years. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for comorbidities in mid-term risk stratification in HF.