Abstract B13: Modeling childhood versus adolescent HPV vaccination in Mali, West Africa

Abstract

Abstract Objectives: Several regions in the developing world, including West Africa, bear a disproportionately high burden of cervical cancer. Incorporating the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine into existing childhood vaccination programs may be a practical way to combat cervical cancer in these settings. Procedures: A compartmental mathematical model compared the occurrence of HPV and cervical cancer outcomes in childhood (age: 1 year) and adolescent (age: 10-14 years) vaccination scenarios over 75 years in Mali, West Africa. The model contained three prominent novel features: adjustable age of vaccination, waning vaccine-induced immunity at a rate of 1% annually, and moderate cross-protection against non-vaccine high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) types. Results: Compared to a scenario with no vaccination, childhood vaccination resulted in a 53.8% (at 50% vaccine coverage) reduction in combined prevalence of all modeled HPV types in Year 75, whereas adolescent vaccination resulted in a prevalence reduction of 52.7%. After 50 years, childhood and adolescent vaccination produced 15.4% and 22.8% reductions, respectively, in the total number of life-years lost to cervical cancer. From Year 51 to Year 75, childhood vaccination reduced the total number of life-years lost by 42.9%, compared to 45.7% for adolescent vaccination. Conclusion: Adolescent vaccination will produce a more immediate impact on cervical cancer outcomes than will childhood vaccination, but the effects of the two approaches become similar once the vaccinated cohorts span all living generations. Childhood HPV vaccination could be a practical long-term option for resource-limited countries with existing childhood vaccination programs. Citation Format: Nicholas H. Schluterman, J Kathleen Tracy. Modeling childhood versus adolescent HPV vaccination in Mali, West Africa. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Twelfth Annual AACR International Conference on Frontiers in Cancer Prevention Research; 2013 Oct 27-30; National Harbor, MD. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Can Prev Res 2013;6(11 Suppl): Abstract nr B13.