Abstract A28: Current and future incidence rates of invasive breast cancer between Black and White women

Abstract

Abstract Background: Though incidence rates for invasive breast cancer overall have been historically lower for Black than White women, recent reports show that rates have converged between the two groups. We used the age-period-cohort framework to verify the current trends and to forecast future implications. Methods: Data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) Program 13 registries and the age-period-cohort forecasting model were used to observe current incidence rates (1992 to 2014) and to predict future trends (2015 to 2030) of invasive breast cancer by ER status among non-Hispanic White, Hispanic, and Black women, ages 30 to 84 years. Trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) were quantitated with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASR. Results: Observed invasive breast cancer incidence rates from 1992 through 2014 show convergence between White and Black women but not between non-Hispanic White and Black women. Observed incidence rates for ER-positive breast cancer are rising for all races, but rising faster among Black women with an EAPC = 0.77 [0.26, 1.29] %/year. In contrast, observed incidence rates for ER-negative breast cancer are decreasing for all races, but decreasing slower among Black women with an EAPC = -2.00 [-2.55, -1.43] %/year. Forecasting for ER-positive and ER-negative breast cancers suggests a continuation of the observed trends without future convergence in overall breast cancer rates. Conclusions: Incidence rates between Black and White women did not converge when non-Hispanic White women were separated from Hispanic White women. Whenever possible, future comparative breast cancer analyses should always attempt to analyze discrete populations separately, given the complexities of differential risk factor exposures by race and/or ethnicity. A better understanding of breast cancer in general and by race may be accomplished by accurately describing the similarities and disparities among different ethnic groups. Citation Format: Brittny C. Davis Lynn, Philip S. Rosenberg, William F. Anderson. Current and future incidence rates of invasive breast cancer between Black and White women [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Tenth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2017 Sep 25-28; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2018;27(7 Suppl):Abstract nr A28.