Abstract 15615: Eligibility for Lipid Lowering Therapy Based on AHA/ACC Risk Score, Coronary Artery Calcification, and CVD Events- National Implications for the Appropriate Use of Preventive Pharmacotherapy: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

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Background: It is estimated that according to ACC-AHA guidelines for cholesterol management an additional 12.8 million adults including 10.4 million for primary prevention are considered for moderate-high intensity statin therapy. We sought to determine whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing might identify individuals who are expected to derive the most, and the least, benefit from the prescribed pharmacotherapy. Methods: MESA is a longitudinal, population-based study of 6,814 men and women aged 45-84 without clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) at enrollment. The following participants were excluded from the analysis: 1100 (16%) on lipid lowering medication, 87 individuals (1.3%) with absent LDL levels, 26 (0.4%) with missing risk factors for calculation of 10-yr risk of ASCVD based on the new pooled-cohort equations as well as 634 (9.3%) aged >75 years. Results: The final study population consisted of 4,967 individuals (59±9 years, 47% males). Overall 255 (5.1%) hard CVD events were noted in follow-up of median 10.3 years (IQR=9.7-10.8). Based on the new guidelines (figure), 2449 (49%) were considered candidates for moderate-high intensity statin therapy at baseline. Of these, 41% had CAC=0 and had 5.2 CVD events/1000 person-years and 29% had CAC>100 and they had 15.2 events/1000 person-years. Among the 610 individuals who would be considered candidates for moderate intensity statin , 350 (57%) had a CAC=0 and an event rate of 1.5/1000 person year. CAC testing was similarly able to risk stratify individuals across increasing levels (quartiles) of ASCVD risk >7.5% (figure). Conclusion: Within MESA, nearly half of patients considered for statin therapy based on the new guidelines had CAC=0, and experienced a very low event rate and subsequent high number needed to treat to prevent one event. Our study findings suggest that CAC further refines the estimate of CVD risk and may facilitate informed shared decision-making regarding statin treatment.