Abstract 15422: Distribution of 10- and 30-year Predicted Risks for Heart Failure in the United States: NHANES 2015 to 2018

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Introduction: Heart failure (HF) poses a significant health burden with prevalence projected to increase by 46% by 2030 in the United States. Targeted implementation and dissemination of clinical and public health preventive measures across the life course will be informed by describing population distributions of short- and long-term predicted HF risk. Methods: Among nonpregnant middle-aged (30-59 years) adults without prevalent CVD from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2015-18, continuous 10-year (10Y) and 30-year (30Y) HF risk estimates were calculated using short- and long-term risk equations derived in the Cardiovascular Lifetime Risk Pooling Project. High estimated 10Y risk was classified as ≥5%, and high 30Y risk as ≥20%. Participants were categorized by combined 10Y and 30Y estimated risk categories overall and stratified by sex, race, age, and body mass index. Distributions were compared using chi-square tests. Results: In 1495 NHANES participants (representing 53,022,413 Americans) with mean age 45 years (SE 0.3), median 10Y risk was 0.8% and 30Y risk was 11%. Approximately 4% of individuals were estimated to have high 10Y predicted risk of HF. Of those who were classified as low 10Y risk, 23% had high 30Y predicted risk. Distributions differed significantly by sex, race, age, and BMI (P<0.01, Figure ). Black males more frequently were classified as high 10Y or 30Y risk compared to other race-sex groups. Older individuals and those with BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 had a higher frequency of low 10Y but high 30Y risk. Conclusions: More than one-fourth of middle-aged U.S. adults have elevated short- or long-term predicted risk for HF. While the majority of middle-aged US adults are at low 10Y risk for HF, a large proportion among this subgroup are at high 30Y HF risk. Application of both short- and long-term HF risk prediction may mitigate the growing morbidity and mortality related to HF and identify strategies to target those at-risk earlier in the life course.