Abstract
Background: As the primary culprit for nearly half of global cardiovascular deaths, ischemic heart disease (IHD) exerts a significant medical and economic toll, particularly on low- and middle-income countries. The rise in IHD incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 necessitates revising analyses and developing effective IHD strategies. Research Questions: To categorize IHD incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years by country, sex, age, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) from 1990-2019. To identify key risk factors and establish a model predicting IHD incidence till 2044.Aims: To assess global IHD incidence, dissect disease burden distribution, identify central risk factors, and forecast incidence trends. Methods: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for global population and IHD data from 1990 to 2019, we explored regional, gender, age attributes, and IHD temporal progression. We utilized a joinpoint model and an age-period-cohort model to decipher IHD incidence trends, scrutinized primary IHD risk factors, and predicted global IHD incidence till 2044. Results: Global age-standardized IHD incidence decreased from 316 (95% UI 282-352) in 1990 to 262 (95% UI 233-293) in 2019, primarily due to high SDI and high-middle SDI regions. Men had higher IHD incidence across all ages, notably between 35-74. Diet remained the leading risk factor from 1990 to 2019. Projections suggest a steady global IHD incidence similar to 2019 levels by 2044. Conclusions: Future trends indicate the IHD burden will concentrate in middle or lower SDI regions, with stable global IHD incidence over the next two decades. Joint initiatives to mitigate IHD's burden are vital, demanding specific policies and interventions. The GBD database is instrumental for health priority strategies. Collective efforts can lead us towards sustainable development and improved global health.
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