Abstract 13527: The Development of a Remote Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Risk Score Utilising Remote Monitoring Technology to Monitor Parameters Associated With Mortality in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Abstract

Background: In patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) risk stratification is used to aid clinical decision making and guide treatment categorising patients as low (<5%), intermediate (5-10%), or high mortality risk (>10%) at 1 year based on hospital investigations. Risk stratification based on remote parameters may facilitate early evaluation of clinical efficacy following treatment change or indicate clinical stability/deterioration, thereby permitting early intervention. Methods: Patients with PH were identified from the ASPIRE (6/YH/0352) database 2/2001-6/2019. Random allocation was used to form a derivation (n=3832). Univariate Cox Regression and stepwise forward multivariate analysis were undertaken in the derivation cohort to identify parameters that may be remote monitored that were associated with mortality. Mortality weighted z-scores of age, incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT), heart rate (HR) and total pulmonary resistance (TPR) were summed to give an individual remote risk score value. LOESS regression was used to determine 1 year risk thresholds applied to a PAH validation cohort (n=590). Results: Multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort demonstrated that ISWT, HR and TPR had statistically significant relationships to mortality. Survival analysis showed increased mortality with each decile of baseline risk score with the 10 th decile at increased risk of mortality compared the 1 st decile (OR 5.5, 95%CI 4.3-7.0, each decile p<0.01, Figure). In patients with PAH, LOESS derived thresholds identified patients at low, intermediate and high risk with 1 year mortalities of 4.6, 9.8 and 15.1% respectively (low-int OR 1.9, low-high OR 2.7,p<0.01,Figure). Conclusion: A score of remote monitored parameters, when applied at diagnosis, accurately categorised patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. This system may be applied to remote monitored physiological data to provide real time risk stratification.