Abstract
The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.
Highlights
The climate and ecosystems usually respond rather linearly to changes in external conditions
We point out how models and observations indicate the existence of these phenomena in many elements of the Earth system, spanning a vast range of time scales
We illustrate some consequences of this view for monsoon systems, sea ice and terrestrial ecosystems, and argue how a general view on tipping points can contribute to a conceptual understanding of different tipping elements in the Earth system
Summary
The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied This appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. The climate system’s internal variability shows modes with specific frequency ranges, most importantly the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)[16] Such oscillations will affect parts of the climate system or ecosystems that have intrinsic thresholds or bifurcations: a gradual change in the mean, amplitude or frequency of periodic drivers can trigger abrupt change in these. We illustrate some consequences of this view for monsoon systems, sea ice and terrestrial ecosystems, and argue how a general view on tipping points can contribute to a conceptual understanding of different tipping elements in the Earth system
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