A62 The Impacts of Transport Sector Decarbonisation Pathways on Air Quality and Public Health in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Multiple air pollutants are often produced by the same transport technologies (e.g. gasoline and diesel vehicles). Therefore, it is logical that actions to reduce a subset of these emissions (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions) could have impacts on other pollutants. This research has quantified a portion of the air quality and public health co-impacts of two decarbonisation pathways. This research facilitated a proof of concept for the soft-linking of a benchmark technoeconomic energy systems model (UKTM-UCL) with an air pollution and public health calculator based on a life tables approach for the United Kingdom and London. These tools were used to investigate the co-impacts of technology transitions from the 2010 (base year) to 2050 in terms of air pollution emitted by transportation technologies in these two regions. Scenarios included a business as usual (2050 Base) case and a low-greenhouse gas case (Low GHG), defined using existing constraints and targets under the Climate Change Act of 2008 and its resulting carbon budgets. The Low GHG scenario was cost optimized across the energy sector. The results of these scenarios were inputted into a Sustainability Gap indicator framework. Compared to the 2050 Base scenario, this analysis found that the Low GHG scenario would result in a 35% decrease in CO2-equivalent emissions from the transportation sector. This technology transition would have further statistically significant co-impacts on co-pollutants including nitrous oxide (NOx), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and di-nitrogen oxide (N2O). In the case of particulate matter that is 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM2.5), the Base 2050 scenario resulted in a 9% decrease in transport sector emissions compared to 2010. Furthermore, the Low GHG scenario resulted in a 63% decrease compared to 2010. This corresponds to an anticipated decrease of more than 3,000 annual premature deaths in the United Kingdom (277 in London) according to a life tables approach for estimated early mortality across the populations of interest. Decarbonisation scenarios for the United Kingdom’s transportation sector will likely have significant co-impacts on outdoor air quality. According to this analysis, these co-impacts could be largely positive and have a corresponding positive impact on local human health.