Year-end Sale % OFF 
Abstract
Abstract This paper introduces a concomitant-variable hidden semi-Markov model tailored to analyse marine count data in the Venice lagoon. Our model targets acqua alta events, i.e. the exceedances of flooding limits, addressing the prevalent zero counts within the dataset through a fitted zero-inflated Poisson distribution. The data’s dynamics are attributed to a discrete set of hidden environmental risk states, evolving through time following a (nonhomogeneous) hidden semi-Markov chain. Furthermore, we extend the conventional hidden semi-Markov approach by introducing regression-dependent state-specific duration parameters, enhancing the model’s adaptability and precision in capturing real-world complexities. Our methodology hinges on the maximum-likelihood estimation, directly optimizing the log-likelihood function to infer the model’s parameters. Through the definition of this novel hidden semi-Markov model, we aim to offer a complete understanding of the intricate interplay between weather states, environmental variables, and the observed marine count data, thus contributing to a nuanced analysis of the Venice lagoon’s data.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callSimilar Papers
More From: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
