Abstract
Compared to the load characteristics of normal working days, weekend load characteristics have a low level of load and are sensitive to meteorological conditions, which influences the accuracy of short-term weekend-load forecasting. To solve this problem and to improve the accuracy of short-term weekend-load forecasting, a Semi-parametric weekend-load forecasting method based on the interaction between meteorological and load is proposed in this paper. The main work is shown as follows: (1) through separating weekend-load from normal-load and analyzing the correlation between meteorological factors and daily maximum load, the meteorological factors with parameter characteristics and non-parameter characteristics can be screened out; (2) a short-term weekend-load forecasting model is built according to Semi-parametric regression theory which can express the coupling relation between meteorology and load more realistically; (3) the effect of temperature accumulation is also considered to correct the forecasting model. The proposed method is proved by implementing short-term weekend-load forecasting on the real historical data of the Southern Power Grid in China. The result shows that the 96-point mean load forecasting accuracy obtained by this model can meet the requirement of power network operation.
Highlights
With the expansion of the power grid scale and the increasing of load peak and valley differences, it has become an important and arduous task for power dispatching departments to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting
To prove that the proposed Semi-parametric weekend load forecasting method based on the interaction between meteorology and load can accurately predict the load value of the future power grid, the weekend load forecasting model is simulated and tested based on the load data of a southern power grid
Weekend load forecasting model is established based on the data of 2008–2014 as a historical sample set, and the data of 2015 as a test set is selected to test the final results of the forecasting
Summary
With the expansion of the power grid scale and the increasing of load peak and valley differences, it has become an important and arduous task for power dispatching departments to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting. The study of the coupling relationship between meteorology and load is the key to improve the accuracy of weekend load forecasting and all-weather short-term load forecasting. The difference between characteristics on weekend load and working days, as well as the interactive coupling relationship with external weather information, have become the shortcoming factors that restrict the accuracy of weekend load forecasting. By analyzing the correlation degree of each meteorological factor and load, the meteorological factors are divided into two categories: parametric and non-parametric This method improves the accuracy of weekend load forecasting by optimizing the allocation of meteorological factors.
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