A two-phase wind speed simulation model considering diurnal and seasonal patterns and its application to adequacy assessment

Abstract

Owing to the growing wind penetration, the diurnal and seasonal patterns of wind speed may create a considerable impact on system adequacy. To assess such impact, this paper proposes a two-phase wind speed simulation model considering diurnal and seasonal patterns. The joint wind speed probability distribution of 24-h wind speed is employed to consider the diurnal pattern in the first phase. The optimal season coefficients are proposed to consider the seasonal pattern in the second phase. The optimal season coefficients are obtained by minimizing the difference between the mean value and standard deviation of simulated wind speeds and those of actual wind speeds at each season. With the proposed model, the seasonal adequacy assessment procedure of wind-integrated generation systems considering diurnal and seasonal patterns is developed. The actual wind speed data collected from the wind site in North Dakota are used to justify the accuracy and efficacy of the proposed model. The influences of seasonal pattern, wind turbine quantity, and system peak load on seasonal system adequacy are investigated.