A Top-Down Spatially Resolved Electrical Load Model

Abstract

The increasing deployment of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) is changing the source regime in the electrical energy sector. However, VRES feed-in from wind turbines and photovoltaic systems is dependent on the weather and only partially predictable. As a result, existing energy sector models must be re-evaluated and adjusted as necessary. In long-term forecast models, the expansion of VRES must be taken into account so that future local overloads can be identified and measures taken. This paper focuses on one input factor for electrical energy models: the electrical load. We compare two different types to describe this, namely vertical grid load and total load. For the total load, an approach for a spatially-resolved electrical load model is developed and applied at the municipal level in Germany. This model provides detailed information about the load at a quarterly-hour resolution across 11,268 German municipalities. In municipalities with concentrations of energy-intensive industry, high loads are expected, which our simulation reproduces with a good degree of accuracy. Our results also show that municipalities with energy-intensive industry have a higher simulated electric load than neighboring municipalities that do not host energy-intensive industries. The underlying data was extracted from publically accessible sources and therefore the methodology introduced is also applicable to other countries.