Abstract
The increasing deployment of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) is changing the source regime in the electrical energy sector. However, VRES feed-in from wind turbines and photovoltaic systems is dependent on the weather and only partially predictable. As a result, existing energy sector models must be re-evaluated and adjusted as necessary. In long-term forecast models, the expansion of VRES must be taken into account so that future local overloads can be identified and measures taken. This paper focuses on one input factor for electrical energy models: the electrical load. We compare two different types to describe this, namely vertical grid load and total load. For the total load, an approach for a spatially-resolved electrical load model is developed and applied at the municipal level in Germany. This model provides detailed information about the load at a quarterly-hour resolution across 11,268 German municipalities. In municipalities with concentrations of energy-intensive industry, high loads are expected, which our simulation reproduces with a good degree of accuracy. Our results also show that municipalities with energy-intensive industry have a higher simulated electric load than neighboring municipalities that do not host energy-intensive industries. The underlying data was extracted from publically accessible sources and therefore the methodology introduced is also applicable to other countries.
Highlights
Due to the rising share of variable renewable energy sources (VRES), such as wind and photovoltaics, the operation of the electrical grid in Germany has become more complex.The fluctuating nature of VRES output complicates any long-term forecast of the electrical grid load, which is necessary for the future grid development
This paper demonstrates that vertical grid load cannot be used to model electrical load
Since the feed-in into the distribution grid is not properly accounted for by the vertical grid load, the amount of VRES that is usually fed into the distribution grid is always miscalculated
Summary
Martin Robinius 1, *, Felix ter Stein 1 , Adrien Schwane 1 and Detlef Stolten 1,2. Chair of Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Wilhelm-Johnen-Str., Jülich D-52428, Germany.
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