A tool for creating energy market scenarios for evaluation of investments in energy intensive industry

Abstract

The energy intensive industry can be a major contributor to CO2 emissions reduction, provided that appropriate investments are made. To assess profitability and net CO2 emissions reduction potential of such investments, predictions about future energy market conditions are needed. Energy market scenarios can be used to reflect different possible future energy market conditions. This paper presents a tool for creating consistent energy market scenarios adapted for evaluation of energy related investments in energy intensive industrial processes. Required user inputs include fossil fuel prices and costs associated with policy instruments, and the outputs are energy market prices and CO2 consequences of import/export of different energy streams (e.g. electric power and biomass fuel) from an industrial process site. The paper also presents four energy market scenarios for the medium-term future (i.e. around 2020) created using the tool.