Abstract
Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The 'Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)' tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM 2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO 2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the 'active travel' policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.
Highlights
With rapidly increasing urbanization, it is estimated that by 2050 nearly 70% of the world’s population will be living in cities (United Nations, 2018)
The result was an Excel-based modelling framework known as the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT), which we describe in this paper
The development of the CRAFT tool was undertaken as part of the research project Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH), supported by the Wellcome Trust
Summary
It is estimated that by 2050 nearly 70% of the world’s population will be living in cities (United Nations, 2018). While cities provide great potential for improving our lives and well-being, there exists considerable variation in the levels of environmental exposures including (i) air pollution, (ii) noise, (iii) temperature, (iv) green space, and (v) physical activity within and between cities. This is partly due to cities having different urban-planning practices and different infrastructure systems. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual version 2 (revision)
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