A Time-Series Analysis on the Association Between Fine Particulate Matter and Daily Mortality - Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, China, 2015-2020.

Abstract

IntroductionShijiazhuang is one of the most polluted cities in China, but few studies have investigated the acute impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on mortality in this city. We assessed associations between PM2.5 and cause-specific mortality during 2015 to 2020. MethodsWe obtained air quality data from Shijiazhuang Ecology and Environment Bureau, meteorological data from Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau, and mortality data from Shijiazhuang CDC’s Cause of Death Reporting System for our analyses. We used a quasi-Poisson regression generalized additive model to assess excess risk of death for a single time-lag and for moving average time-lags of 0–7 days, stratifying by year, sex, age, and education.ResultsThere were 76,859 non-accidental deaths recorded in Shijiazhuang during the study period. The daily concentration of PM2.5 ranged from 6.3 μg/m3 to 625.3 μg/m3, and the annual mean concentration was 77.6 μg/m3. Regression analysis showed that an increment of PM2.5 of 10 μg/m3 in a two-day average concentration (lag01) was associated with 0.47% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.24%, 0.70%], 0.49% (95% CI: 0.19%, 0.79%), and 0.72% (95% CI: 0.22%, 1.23%) increases in non-accidental deaths, cardiovascular disease deaths, and respiratory disease deaths, respectively. With reduction of PM2.5 concentration, impact of PM2.5 on respiratory disease deaths decreased, but the impact of PM2.5 on total non-accidental deaths and circulatory disease deaths did not change significantly. ConclusionAlthough PM2.5 has been greatly reduced in recent years, PM2.5 pollution is still serious in Shijiazhuang. PM2.5 was significantly associated with non-accidental death, cardiovascular disease death, and respiratory disease death. As PM2.5 concentrations decreased, risk of death from respiratory diseases also decreased.