Abstract
Cross contamination that results in food-borne disease outbreaks remains a major problem in processed foods globally. In this paper, a mathematical model that takes into consideration cross contamination of Listeria monocytogenes from a food processing plant environment is formulated using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model has three equilibria: the disease-free equilibrium, Listeria-free equilibrium, and endemic equilibrium points. A contamination threshold ℛwf is determined. Analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally stable for ℛwf<1 while the Listeria-free and endemic equilibria are locally stable for ℛwf>1. The time-dependent sensitivity analysis is performed using Latin hypercube sampling to determine model input parameters that significantly affect the severity of the listeriosis. Numerical simulations are carried out, and the results are discussed. The results show that a reduction in the number of contaminated workers and removal of contaminated food products are essential in eliminating the disease in the human population and vice versa. The results have significant public health implications in the management and containment of any listeriosis disease outbreak.
Highlights
Listeria is a Gram-positive facultatively anaerobic bacillus which was discovered by E.G.D
Murray in 1924, and in 1926, it was classified as Listeria monocytogenes (L. monocytogenes) [1]
After humans come in contact with Listeria, the causative agent of listeriosis remains in the gastrointestinal tract and survives and develops different strategies to counteract changes in acidity, osmolarity, oxygen tension, or the challenging effects of antimicrobial peptides and bile [5]
Summary
Listeria is a Gram-positive facultatively anaerobic bacillus (bacteria) which was discovered by E.G.D. Several mathematical models [11,12,13,14], predictive microbiology models [15, 16], empirical models [15], and statistical models [17] have been used to model the growth, survival, and death rates of Listeria None of these models consider the aspect of cross contamination, which is essential in the dynamics of listeriosis in humans. E objective of this study is to present a more explicit mathematical model for cross contamination of Listeria occurring in a production plant such as slicing and packaging in the preparation of RTE foods and its impact on humans through consumption of RTE foods.
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