A tentative study for the prediction of the CME related geomagnetic storm intensity and its transit time

Abstract

Using 80 CME-ICME events during 1997.1–2002.9, based on the eruptive source locations of CMEs and solar magnetic field observation at the photosphere, a current sheet magnetic coordinate (CMC) system is established in order to study the propagation of CME and its geoeffectiveness. In context of this coordinate system, the effect of the eruptive source location and the form of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) at the eruptive time of CME on the geomagnetic storm intensity caused by CME and the CME’s transit time at the Earth is investigated in detail. Our preliminary conclusions are: 1) The geomagnetic disturbances caused by CMEs tend to have the so-called “same side-opposite side effect”, i.e. CMEs erupt from the same side of the HCS as the earth would be more likely to arrive at the earth and the geomagnetic disturbances associated with them tend to be of larger magnitude, while CMEs erupting from the opposite side would arrive at the earth with less probability and the corresponding geomagnetic disturbance magnitudes would be relatively weaker. 2) The angular separation between the earth and the HCS affect the corresponding disturbance intensity. That is, when our earth is located near the HCS, adverse space weather events occur most probably. 3) The erupting location of the CME and its nearby form of HCS will also affect its arrival time at the earth. According to these conclusions, in this context of CMC coordinate we arrive at new prediction method for estimating the geomagnetic storm intensity (Dstmin) caused by CMEs and their transit times. The application of the empirical model for 80 CME-ICME events shows that the relative error of Dst is within 30% for 59% events with Dstmin≤−50 nT, while the averaged absolute error of transit time is lower than 10 h for all events.