A Tenfold Increase in Extreme Fires  expected in Europe under a warming climate  

Abstract

Extreme wildfires have a disastrous impact on society and the natural environment. Wildfires are prone in areas with fuel built up and desiccated over time. A warmer and drier climate will lead to an increase in the risk of extreme fires.     This study quantifies how the risk of extreme fires is conditioned on potential temperature and precipitation changes. Our results indicate that large areas of southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts. The increasing probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, is expected to strain Europe's ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.