Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Risk Management

Abstract

AbstractUnder the moderate future greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP4.5), climate model simulations project that the annual mean temperature will increase in Europe by up to 2–3 °C by the middle of this century, compared to the end of the nineteenth century. The temperature increase is projected to be larger in Northern Europe than in Central and Southern Europe. The annual precipitation is projected to decrease in Southern Europe and increase in Northern and Central Europe. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to be higher in the winter than in the summer months. In Northern Europe, forest growth is generally projected to increase due to warmer and longer growing seasons. In southern Europe in particular, warmer and dryer summers are projected to decrease forest growth. Climate change is expected also to expose forests and forestry to multiple abiotic and biotic risks throughout Europe. The greatest abiotic risks to forests are caused by windstorms, drought, forest fires and extreme snow loading on trees. The warmer climate will also increase biotic risks to forests, such as damage caused by European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) outbreaks in Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests and wood decay by Heterobasidion spp. root rot in Norway spruce and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests. Different adaptation and risk management actions may be needed, depending on geographical region and time span, in order to maintain forest resilience, which is also important for climate change mitigation.