A taxonomy of multiple stable states in complex ecological communities.

Abstract

Natural systems are built from multiple interconnected units, making their dynamics, functioning and fragility notoriously hard to predict. A fragility scenario of particular relevance concerns so-called regime shifts: abrupt transitions from healthy to degraded ecosystem states. An explanation for these shifts is that they arise as transitions between alternative stable states, a process that is well-understood in few-species models. However, how multistability upscales with system complexity remains a debated question. Here, we identify that four different multistability regimes generically emerge in models of species-rich communities and other archetypical complex biological systems assuming random interactions. Across the studied models, each regime consistently emerges under a specific interaction scheme and leaves a distinct set of fingerprints in terms of the number of observed states, their species richness and their response to perturbations. Our results help clarify the conditions and types of multistability that can be expected to occur in complex ecological communities.