Multiple Stable States and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

Abstract

The idea that ecosystems may have multiple alternative stable states dates back to the late 1960s–early 1970s, when ecologists realized that this type of behavior could arise in simple mathematical models. A direct consequence is that such ecosystems can suddenly switch (or “tip”) between their alternative stable states rather than gradually responding to changes. In other terms, in these ecosystems, a small environmental perturbation can cause large, discontinuous, and irreversible changes, referred to as catastrophic shifts. This idea has attracted increasing interest in the literature over the years, and has become even more relevant in the current context of global change. Examples of catastrophic shifts in ecosystems include the eutrophication of shallow lakes, the desertification of drylands, and the degradation of coral reefs. Theoretical models have investigated the conditions under which alternative stable states and catastrophic shifts occur. A well-recognized cause of alternative stable states is the presence of strong positive—or self-reinforcing—feedback processes that maintain each of the stable ecosystem states. Understanding the mechanisms underlying the emergence of alternative stable states can help design management as well as restoration strategies for ecosystems. Because catastrophic shifts can have dramatic ecological and economic consequences, approaches have been proposed to detect possible alternative stable states in natural systems, and indicators of approaching ecosystem transitions have been identified (so-called early warning signals of critical slowing down).