A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer.
Since 2012, US guidelines have recommended against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer. However, evidence of screening benefit from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening trial and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer has been inconsistent, due partly to differences in noncompliance and contamination. Using system dynamics modeling, we replicated the PLCO trial and extrapolated follow-up to 20 years. We then simulated 3 scenarios correcting for contamination in the PLCO control arm using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and survival data collected prior to the PSA screening era (scenario 1), SEER data collected during the PLCO trial period (1993-2001) (scenario 2), and data from the European trial's control arm (1991-2005) (scenario 3). In all scenarios, noncompliance was corrected using incidence and survival rates for men with screen-detected cancer in the PLCO screening arm. Scenarios 1 and 3 showed a benefit of PSA screening, with relative risks of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.72) and 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.83) for cancer-specific mortality after 20 years, respectively. In scenario 2, however, there was no benefit of screening. This simulation showed that after correcting for noncompliance and contamination, there is potential benefit of PSA screening in reducing prostate cancer mortality. It also demonstrates the utility of system dynamics modeling for synthesizing epidemiologic evidence to inform public policy.
- # Prostate, Lung, Colorectal And Ovarian
- # Benefit Of Screening
- # Prostate-specific Antigen Screening
- # Prostate, Lung, Colorectal And Ovarian Trial
- # Screening For Prostate Cancer
- # Prostate Cancer
- # Survival Rates For Men
- # Reducing Prostate Cancer Mortality
- # System Dynamics Modeling
- # Surveillance, Epidemiology, And End Results
- Research Article
227
- 10.1093/jnci/dji065
- Mar 15, 2005
- JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute
The benefit of screening for prostate cancer using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination (DRE) is uncertain and is under evaluation in a randomized prospective trial, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Although the final results are several years away, the initial round of screening is complete. We describe the population enrolled in the PLCO trial, their baseline PSA and DRE screening results, and diagnostic follow-up results during the first year of follow-up. A total of 38,350 men were randomly assigned to the screening arm of the PLCO trial from November 1993 through June 2001. Men were advised to seek diagnostic follow-up from their primary care provider if their DRE was suspicious for cancer and/or if their serum PSA level was higher than 4 ng/mL. PLCO trial staff obtained records related to diagnostic follow-up. Compliance with both screening tests was high (more than 89%). At screening, 7.5% of men had a positive DRE (i.e., suspicious for cancer) and 7.9% had a PSA level higher than 4 ng/mL. Of the men with positive screening tests, 74.2% underwent additional diagnostic testing, and 31.5% underwent a prostatic biopsy within 1 year. Overall, 1.4% of the men in the screening arm were diagnosed with prostate cancer, the majority of whom had clinically localized cancer. These compliance, biopsy, and cancer detection rates appear to be representative of contemporary practice patterns. The PLCO trial is evaluating PSA- and DRE-based screening for prostate cancer in a clinically valid manner. Whether such screening will result in a reduction of prostate cancer mortality cannot be answered until the randomized comparison is completed.
- Research Article
93
- 10.1002/uog.17557
- Mar 1, 2018
- Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology
The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) recently reported a reduction in the average overall mortality among ovarian cancer patients screened with an annual sequential, multimodal strategy that tracked biomarker CA125 over time, where increasing serum CA125 levels prompted ultrasound. However, multiple cases were documented wherein serum CA125 levels were rising, but ultrasound screens were normal, thus delaying surgical intervention. A significant factor which could contribute to false negatives is that many aggressive ovarian cancers are believed to arise from epithelial cells on the fimbriae of the fallopian tubes, which are not readily imaged. Moreover, because only a fraction of metastatic tumors may reach a sonographically-detectable size before they metastasize, annual screening with ultrasound may fail to detect a large fraction of early-stage ovarian cancers. The ability to detect ovarian carcinomas before they metastasize is critical and future efforts towards improving screening should focus on identifying unique features specific to aggressive, early-stage tumors, as well as improving imaging sensitivity to allow for detection of tubal lesions. Implementation of a three-stage multimodal screening strategy in which a third modality is employed in cases where the first-line blood-based assay is positive and the second-line ultrasound exam is negative may also prove fruitful in detecting early-stage cases missed by ultrasound.
- Research Article
- 10.1016/s1042-0991(15)31519-x
- Feb 1, 2013
- Pharmacy Today
Prostate cancer: Interventions aimed at improving morbidity, mortality
- News Article
- 10.4161/cbt.8.7.8521
- Apr 1, 2009
- Cancer Biology & Therapy
US Trial shows no early mortality benefit from annual prostate cancer screening
- Research Article
7
- 10.1097/ju.0000000000001531
- Dec 22, 2020
- Journal of Urology
Other and All-Cause Mortality among Men Diagnosed with Prostate Cancer in the PLCO Trial
- Research Article
1
- 10.1089/jomh.2014.3502
- Mar 1, 2014
- Journal of Men's Health
PSA Screening: A Discussion Based on the USPSTF Recommendations and the AUA and EAU Guidelines
- Research Article
2
- 10.1002/cncr.27559
- Apr 6, 2012
- Cancer
To screen or not to screen
- Research Article
61
- 10.1016/s0197-2456(00)00093-3
- Dec 1, 2000
- Controlled Clinical Trials
Black participation in the prostate, lung, colorectal and ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial
- Front Matter
9
- 10.1097/01.ju.0000171051.35187.d0
- Aug 1, 2005
- The Journal of Urology
PROSTATE SPECIFIC ANTIGEN BASED PROSTATE CANCER SCREENING: ACCUMULATING EVIDENCE OF EFFICACY BUT PERSISTENT UNCERTAINTY
- Research Article
22
- 10.1016/j.juro.2008.07.041
- Sep 17, 2008
- Journal of Urology
Mass Screening for Prostate Cancer in Korea: A Population Based Study
- Research Article
11
- 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-16-0776
- Oct 31, 2017
- Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
Background: Vasectomy has been implicated as a risk factor for prostate cancer in multiple epidemiologic studies over the past 25 years. Whether this relationship is causal remains unclear. This study examines the association between vasectomy and prostate cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, which randomized men to usual care or annual prostate cancer screening.Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 13-year screening and outcomes data from the PLCO trial. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by study arm and age at vasectomy was performed.Results: There was an increased risk of prostate cancer in men who had undergone a vasectomy and were randomized to the usual care arm of the study (adjusted HR, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.20; P = 0.008). There was no association between vasectomy and diagnosis of prostate cancer in men randomized to the prostate cancer screening arm. Only men undergoing vasectomy at an older age in the usual care arm of the study, but not the prostate cancer screening arm, were at increased risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer.Conclusions: Vasectomy was not associated with prostate cancer risk among men who were screened for prostate cancer as part of a clinical trial, but was associated with prostate cancer detection in men receiving usual care.Impact: The positive association between vasectomy and prostate cancer is likely related to increased detection of prostate cancer based on patterns of care rather than a biological effect of vasectomy on prostate cancer development. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(11); 1653-9. ©2017 AACR.
- Preprint Article
- 10.1158/1055-9965.c.6515901.v1
- Mar 31, 2023
<div>Abstract<p><b>Background:</b> Vasectomy has been implicated as a risk factor for prostate cancer in multiple epidemiologic studies over the past 25 years. Whether this relationship is causal remains unclear. This study examines the association between vasectomy and prostate cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, which randomized men to usual care or annual prostate cancer screening.</p><p><b>Methods:</b> We performed a retrospective analysis of 13-year screening and outcomes data from the PLCO trial. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by study arm and age at vasectomy was performed.</p><p><b>Results:</b> There was an increased risk of prostate cancer in men who had undergone a vasectomy and were randomized to the usual care arm of the study (adjusted HR, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03–1.20; <i>P</i> = 0.008). There was no association between vasectomy and diagnosis of prostate cancer in men randomized to the prostate cancer screening arm. Only men undergoing vasectomy at an older age in the usual care arm of the study, but not the prostate cancer screening arm, were at increased risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer.</p><p><b>Conclusions:</b> Vasectomy was not associated with prostate cancer risk among men who were screened for prostate cancer as part of a clinical trial, but was associated with prostate cancer detection in men receiving usual care.</p><p><b>Impact:</b> The positive association between vasectomy and prostate cancer is likely related to increased detection of prostate cancer based on patterns of care rather than a biological effect of vasectomy on prostate cancer development. <i>Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(11); 1653–9. ©2017 AACR</i>.</p></div>
- Preprint Article
- 10.1158/1055-9965.c.6515901
- Mar 31, 2023
<div>Abstract<p><b>Background:</b> Vasectomy has been implicated as a risk factor for prostate cancer in multiple epidemiologic studies over the past 25 years. Whether this relationship is causal remains unclear. This study examines the association between vasectomy and prostate cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, which randomized men to usual care or annual prostate cancer screening.</p><p><b>Methods:</b> We performed a retrospective analysis of 13-year screening and outcomes data from the PLCO trial. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by study arm and age at vasectomy was performed.</p><p><b>Results:</b> There was an increased risk of prostate cancer in men who had undergone a vasectomy and were randomized to the usual care arm of the study (adjusted HR, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03–1.20; <i>P</i> = 0.008). There was no association between vasectomy and diagnosis of prostate cancer in men randomized to the prostate cancer screening arm. Only men undergoing vasectomy at an older age in the usual care arm of the study, but not the prostate cancer screening arm, were at increased risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer.</p><p><b>Conclusions:</b> Vasectomy was not associated with prostate cancer risk among men who were screened for prostate cancer as part of a clinical trial, but was associated with prostate cancer detection in men receiving usual care.</p><p><b>Impact:</b> The positive association between vasectomy and prostate cancer is likely related to increased detection of prostate cancer based on patterns of care rather than a biological effect of vasectomy on prostate cancer development. <i>Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(11); 1653–9. ©2017 AACR</i>.</p></div>
- Research Article
374
- 10.1001/jama.289.11.1414
- Mar 19, 2003
- JAMA
The debate about the efficacy of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer has received substantial attention in the medical literature and the media, but the extent to which men are actually screened is unknown. If practice were evidence-based, PSA screening would be less common among men than colorectal cancer screening, a preventive service of broad acceptance and proven efficacy. To compare the prevalences of PSA and colorectal cancer screening among US men. The 2001 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, an annual population-based telephone survey of US adults conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was used to gather data on a representative sample of men aged 40 years or older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia (n = 49 315). Proportions of men ever screened and up to date on screening for prostate cancer (with PSA testing) and colorectal cancer (with fecal occult blood testing, flexible sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy). Overall, men are more likely to report having ever been screened for prostate cancer than for colorectal cancer; 75% of those aged 50 years or older have had a PSA test vs 63% for any colorectal cancer test (risk ratio [RR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.21). Up-to-date PSA screening is also more common than colorectal cancer screening for men of all ages. Among men aged 50 to 69 years (those for whom there is the greatest consensus in favor of screening), 54% reported an up-to-date PSA screen, while 45% reported up-to-date testing for colorectal cancer (RR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.21). In state-level analyses of this age group, men were significantly more likely to be up to date on prostate cancer screening compared with colorectal cancer screening in 27 states, while up-to-date colorectal cancer screening was more common in only 1 state. Among men in the United States, prostate cancer screening is more common than colorectal cancer screening. Physicians should ensure that men who choose to be screened for cancer are aware of the known mortality benefit of colorectal cancer screening and the uncertain benefits of screening for prostate cancer.
- Research Article
11
- 10.1001/jamaoncol.2021.5672
- Nov 24, 2021
- JAMA Oncology
Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer has resulted in a slight reduction in prostate cancer mortality but also a concomitant overdiagnosis of low-risk tumors. Prostate-specific antigen levels are affected by use of cholesterol-lowering statin drugs, but the association of statin use with PSA screening performance is unknown. To investigate whether statin use was associated with outcomes of a randomized PSA-based prostate cancer screening intervention. This post hoc subgroup analysis of a cohort from a population-based randomized clinical trial used data from the population-based Finnish Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening, which randomized men to PSA screening or routine care from March 1, 1996, to December 31, 1999, with follow-up continuing until December 31, 2015. The population included all men aged 55 to 67 years at baseline and residing in the Tampere or Helsinki districts of Finland. Information on statin purchases from 1996 to 2009 was obtained from a national prescription registry. Eligible men were identified from the population registry of Finland. Prevalent prostate cancer cases at baseline were excluded. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019 to March 31, 2021. Three invitations for PSA screening at 4-year intervals from 1996 to 2007 vs routine care. Risk for prostate cancer overall, high-risk disease, and prostate cancer mortality in the screening group vs the control group as an intention-to-treat analysis. The analysis was stratified by statin use. The study comprised 78 606 men (median age, 59 years [range, 55-67 years]) with statin purchase data available. Although PSA screening was associated with increased prostate cancer incidence among statin nonusers (screening vs control, 11.2 vs 8.6 per 1000 person-years); rate ratio [RR], 1.31; 95% CI, 1.24-1.38), no similar increase in incidence was observed among statin users (6.9 vs 5.9 per 1000 person-years; RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.95-1.10; P < .001 for interaction). Incidence of low-risk (Gleason score 6) and localized tumors was lower among statin users, whereas detection of tumors with a Gleason score of 8 to 10 was similar. Screening was associated with a lower incidence of metastatic tumors regardless of statin use. In this post hoc subgroup analysis of a cohort from a population-based randomized clinical trial, PSA screening among statin users was associated with a decreased incidence of advanced prostate cancer that was similar among statin nonusers, but with less increase in detection of low-grade localized tumors in statin users than in nonusers. These findings suggest that statin use does not materially compromise benefits of PSA-based screening.
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