A system dynamics model of port hinterland intermodal transport: A case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under different carbon taxation policies

Abstract

The port cluster in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an important network hub. It not only connects domestic and international markets, but also plays a vital role in stimulating the local and global economy. However, the GBA is facing the challenges in its port hinterland intermodal system due to its surging transport demands. The optimization and integration of the two goals of economy and eco-environmental protection must be considered at the same time. This study makes an endeavor to establish a port hinterland intermodal transport System Dynamics (SD) model of the GBA. The simulation results show that the carbon taxation policy is a relatively direct and effective incentive for inducing the modal split of port hinterland intermodal to a greener mode. Under the same carbon tax rate, the emission reduction effect in descending order is Shenzhen Port, Guangzhou Port, and Hong Kong Port, which means Shenzhen Port is the most sensitive to carbon tax rate due to its huge emission reduction potential. To achieve the national emission reduction goal, the carbon tax rate of BGA needs to be set at the medium to high level. Nevertheless, local governments still have to formulate carbon taxation policies based on local conditions.