The mutual influence of land-sea ecological security and its coordinated governance in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area

Abstract

Land-sea coordination (LSC) is the key to deepening ecological governance and ensuring the ecological security in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). From the perspective of the human-land-sea giant system, terrestrial and marine environment, terrestrial and marine resources, terrestrial and marine disasters, as well as human socio-economic driving force, pressures and responses are included in the evaluation system of the ecological security of the terrestrial subsystem and the marine subsystem. Using an instrumental variable quantile model, structural equation model and system dynamics model, this study tested the mutual influence of land-sea ecological security in the GBA, as well as its underlying mechanism. The results are summarized as follows: 1) There is a clear non-linear mutualistic symbiosis relationship between the terrestrial subsystem and marine subsystem, while the marine subsystem is influenced by the terrestrial subsystem more significantly; 2) The increasingly scarce terrestrial resources of the GBA cannot provide strong support for turning the GBA into a world-class bay area; however, marine resources effectively offset the shortage of terrestrial resources, the needs of terrestrial socio-economic development provide a core driving force for the marine economy; 3) Ecological problems in the GBA are rooted in the land; the terrestrial socio-economic pressure has unidirectional negative influence on the marine ecology; the terrestrial environment is significantly inferior to the marine environment, and the negative influence on the fostering of terrestrial resources and marine environment is gradually emerging; 4) Marine ecological pressure is mainly rooted in the pollution discharge from terrestrial socio-economic development, but is scarcely related to marine economic development; 5) Owing to the differences in political systems, legal systems and cultural contexts between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the effectiveness of land-sea ecological governance is not yet significant. Hence, it is advisable to develop an efficient cross-border coordinated governance system, further deepen the land-sea integrated environmental governance, resource conservation, economic transformation and social response across the GBA, build a high-quality land and marine ecological community in accordance with higher standards.