A Synthesis Method to Generate Hourly Electricity Production Time-series of Wind Plants in Peru for Long-term Expansion Planning

Abstract

Plenty of works have treated the system expansion planning problem in the presence of intermittent renewable energy resources like wind. However, most of those proposals have been approached from scenarios of plenty of data, which is not the rule in developing countries, where principal investment actors have recently switched their focus. In contrast to operation problems where existing literature can be successfully applied since it requires short-term historical time-series gathered from the same studied plants, proposals for planning problems are almost impossible to apply because of a lack of information and measurement about renewable resources in places where no renewable plants have been previously installed. In order to fill this information gap, this paper presents a novel methodology to synthesize wind production time-series on an hourly time scale, taking as inputs aggregate data such as monthly wind speed average values and Weibull annual parameters. The methodology comprises four steps, from data gathering to calculating electrical power produced by a wind farm. Three application tests are performed for different places in India, Chile, and Peru to validate the proposed methodology. The results show that the methodology successfully synthesizes time-series of output power, correctly achieves persistence characteristics, and slightly over or underestimates the produced wind energy, having a discrepancy of 6.2% in the yearly total.