A sustainable approach to study and prediction of urban footprints of Jaipur and its growth direction using satellite based-data analysis

Abstract

It is imperative to study urban land usage and land change to ensure sustainable and sufficient water availability to meet the water demand for the anticipated growth in urban areas. The urban growth of Jaipur suburb of Rajasthan, in India, is considered for the present study.Areal extent of 5800 sq.km including adjacent national highways is taken as the study area. Urban growth is studied for a time span of 2013–2018 with an assessment of growth-influencing parameters and indicators. The predicted model is then validated for 2020 using the observed dataset. For GIS mapping and analysis, Cartosat and Landsat VIII-VII satellite imageries are deployed. To define urban areas, classifications such as built-up, open-ground, vegetation, rangeland and waterbody are used. Land change is investigated for years 2013 and 2018 using a commercial GIS tool namely Terrset Land change modeler. Multi-Layer Perceptron is adopted to analyze growth variability. Land change for the year 2020 is estimated using Markov chain model and validated with observed land use map of 2020. The accuracy of the predicted model is 78.71 percent which is reasonably good in agreement with a realistic data set. The model is calibrated and optimized using a set of criteria namely ‘changing training samples’ and changing sub model’ while creating the transition potential for anticipated urban growth. With the developed GIS-based analysis, predicted urban growth maps are developed for the years 2025, 2030, and 2035. It is concluded that the built-up area in Jaipur suburb region considered under the study area is expected to increase to 18.3 sq.km, 27.3 sq.km and 25.7 sq.km in the year 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively. The urban expansion is mostly seen to the south-west along National Highway 48 (NH-48) and to the south along National Highway 52 (NH-52).