A surrender to dirty energy

Abstract

On Tuesday, Aug 21, US President Donald Trump announced a new plan governing carbon emissions from energy production in the USA, entitled the Affordable Clean Energy plan (ACE). The ACE plan would supersede an earlier plan, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), the implementation of which was delayed by lawsuits. While the CPP would have required states to reduce carbon emissions and encourage a move away from coal power generation, the ACE plan would return regulation of carbon emissions from energy production to the states. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that the ACE plan will cost 1400 lives per year through to 2030 from a greater concentration of particulate matter and ozone produced by fossil fuel combustion. The EPA analysis, which is based on National Academy of Sciences modelling, also found that under the most likely scenario, the ACE plan would lead to nearly 50 000 cases of exacerbated asthma, and cause over 20 000 missed school days, compared with the CPP. President Trump has often decried the “war on coal.” But if there was indeed a war, coal has lost, decisively. Nearly 40% of coal power plants in the USA have been closed or designated for closure since 2010. In 2016, natural gas (considered a bridge fuel towards cleaner energy by some) produced more energy than coal in the USA for the first time, while on average the cost of renewable energy production will, within a few years, be as cheap, if not cheaper, than coal. Regardless of President Trump's actions, the writing is on the wall for coal. The ACE plan undermines the larger imperative to address global climate change. While the decline of coal in the USA is ongoing, the need to continue efforts to address climate change is urgent, and any positive change could mean the difference between a 2°C warming and a much more catastrophic rise. The President's war on the war on coal is poorly conceived, of dubious benefit even for energy producers, would lead to negative health consequences, and does little or nothing to mitigate the effects of one of the greatest challenges facing our world.