Abstract
A study on the probabilistic methodology for the estimation of the remaining life of pressurized pipelines containing active corrosion defects is presented. This reliability assessment is carried out using several already published failure pressure models. A steady state corrosion rate is assumed to estimate the growth in the dimensions of corrosion defects. The first-order second-moment iterative reliability method, the Monte Carlo integration technique and the first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function (LSF) are used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with each corrosion defect over time. The uncertainty of the statistical variables on which the LSF depends are modeled using normal and lognormal distributions and the sensitivity of pipeline reliability to these variables is evaluated. This extended probabilistic analysis framework is applied to a sample operating pipeline which was inspected using a high resolution magnetic flux leakage inspection tool.
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