Abstract
Real-time reliability evaluation is conducive to establishing a condition based maintenance system for the purpose of guaranteeing continuous train operation. According to the inherent characteristics of the on-board equipment, the connotation of reliability evaluation of on-board equipment is defined and the evaluation index of real-time reliability is provided in this paper. From the perspective of methodology and practical application, the real-time reliability of the on-board equipment is discussed in detail, and the method of evaluating the realtime reliability of on-board equipment at component level based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed. In this method the performance degradation data is used directly to realize the accurate perception of the hidden state transition process of on-board equipment, which can achieve a better description of the real-time reliability of the equipment.
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