Abstract
The business cycle of the Air cargo in China is investigated in this paper. Both the composite indicator (CI) and the diffusion indicator (DI) are derived and the benchmark date is determined. The composite index is synthesized by 10 indicators using correlation analysis and the method of NBER. Then the spectral method is adopted in use of the CI to identify the the major cycle of air cargo in China. By the CI, there is a major cycle with the length of 3,6 years. The major cycle of air cargo in China keeps pace with the the global trade fluctuation. The cycle of air cargo of China is compared with the United States, and the railway cargo of China. The author finds out that the major cycle of the air cargo is basically consistent with the USA in the same period. Combined with the prosperity index, it illustrates that the growth of air cargo in China will reach a peak in around 2021-2022, considering the growth of global trade and the leading prosperity index.
Highlights
The business cycle, that is, the economic cycle, refers to the cyclical changes of economic phenomena or economic variables
The classical cycle method mainly observes the fluctuation of the absolute quantity of economic time series, as the trend and cycle series (TC)
The growth rate cycle observes the growth rate of the economic time series, and analyze the regularity of its fluctuation based on the TC series
Summary
The business cycle, that is, the economic cycle, refers to the cyclical changes of economic phenomena or economic variables. The growth rate cycle observes the growth rate of the economic time series (the rate of change compared with the same month of last year or the same quarter), and analyze the regularity of its fluctuation based on the TC series These three methods are adopted by different countries or organizations in the world. Lu Change (2018) [8] analyzed the China's air cargo prosperity index based on supply and demand indicators, but the method was not based on growth rate cycle. This paper establishes the air cargo prosperity indicator system based on the annual data, it determines the reference date by calculating the diffusion index (DI). It analyze the status of the air cargo transport by calculating the composite index (CI) with the growth rate cycle.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
