A study on the impact of extreme weather on the poverty vulnerability of farming households—evidence from six counties in the hubei and yunnan provinces of china

Abstract

By using micro-farm household survey data from six counties in the Hubei and Yunnan provinces, warm days, heavy precipitation, and consecutive dry days were selected as extreme weather measures, and the RClimDex software was used to empirically examine the impacts of extreme weather on farm household poverty vulnerability by setting percentile thresholds to measure extreme weather indicators in each district and county in 2017. Based on the improved Department for International Development sustainable livelihoods analysis framework, the entropy value method was used to synthesize the variables in the farm household sustainable livelihood capacity to examine their mediating effects. The results were as follows: 1) Extreme weather significantly affected farm household poverty vulnerability. Warm days were significantly and negatively related to farmers’ poverty vulnerability, while total heavy precipitation and consecutive dry days were significantly and positively related to farmers’ poverty vulnerability. 2) The impacts of extreme weather on farmers with different vulnerability characteristics varied. 3) The sustainable livelihood capacity of farm households played a partially mediating role in the process of extreme weather indicators of persistent drought index affecting the poverty vulnerability of farm households. 4) As compared to rural households engaged in non-agricultural industries, agricultural production and operation-based farming households were more vulnerable to shocks from extreme weather. Accordingly, we recommended that to improve farmers’ climate resilience, differentiated policies should be adopted according to local conditions; climate-sensitive vulnerable groups should be identified; agricultural insurance coverage should be expanded; farmers should be guided into entrepreneurship; and equalization of public services should be equalized so as to avoid farmers becoming impoverished due to extreme weather.