Abstract
AbstractIn this study, 46 physical parameters are first calculated by using the hourly ground observational data of Liaocheng Airport station and the daily sounding data of Xingtai station and Zhangqiu station in the winters of 2016–2020. After the significance test of the correlation coefficients between the physical parameters and the precipitation types, six physical parameters that could be used in the operational weather forecast at Zhangqiu station and Xingtai station are selected by the methods of box‐plot and skill score based on the distribution characteristics of physical parameters under different precipitation types. Moreover, the judgment criteria for the winter precipitation forecast in Liaocheng are obtained by analyzing the indication effect and thresholds of each physical parameter in different precipitation types. In addition, a forecast model of winter precipitation type in Liaocheng is established by using the extended membership function transformation method with the sounding data from the nearest upstream and downstream stations. The verification with observations shows that the forecast accuracy is above 85% and the model performs quite well. We hope this study can provide a good reference for related operational forecasts in the areas without local sounding data or numerical forecast product receiving.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
