An asymmetric tropical cyclone rainfall model in the Northern Vietnam coast

Abstract

AbstractRainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the Northern Vietnam coast is examined to develop an asymmetric parametric TC‐induced rainfall model starting from the axisymmetric Rain‐Climatology and Persistence (R‐CLIPER) model. We recalibrated the R‐CLIPER model (original R‐CLIPER denoted as NHC) against observed rainfall patterns of 14 landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2021 in the Northern Vietnam coast, while relaxing the model's underlying linear relationships. The recalibrated R‐CLIPER (denoted as Fit‐Ax), still axisymmetric, suggests that some parameters are better correlated with the normalized maximum wind speed using logarithmic and exponential relationships. Fit‐Ax reduces the 12‐hr total rainfall overall root‐mean‐square errors (RMSEs) and Bias magnitudes in the before‐ and after‐landfall periods from NHC for the entire 500‐km TC domain. We further redistribute the Fit‐Ax rainfall intensity across the four quadrants with respect to the TC forward motion to account for the observed large asymmetry in quadrant rainfall (version denoted as Fit‐As). The vertical wind shear (VWS) and landfall (before or after) are considered in this redistribution. Fit‐As generally outperforms Fit‐Ax and NHC in reproducing the observed rainfall distribution for the 14 TCs. At the quadrant level, both Fit‐Ax and Fit‐As show significant improvement in Bias over NHC. Fit‐As is further better overall in RMSE and Skill when weighted by quadrant rainfall volume. In pattern matching, Fit‐As produces the best grid‐averaged Pearson correlation coefficients for 11 TCs. In addition, its equitable threat scores (ETSs) are best beyond the 20‐mm rainfall threshold, with the maximum of 0.299 at the 90‐mm rainfall threshold. Thus, our locally fitted asymmetric rainfall model demonstrates improved capability in reproducing the historical TC‐induced rainfall along the Northern Vietnam coast.