A Study on the Development of a Predictive Model for the Number of Korean Cattle using a Sine Function

Abstract

Due to the biological characteristics of Korean beef cattle, the breeding period is long, so the number of breeding heads repeats increase and decrease. So they have a certain breeding cycle. In this study, we develop a model using a sine function that can reflect these characteristics of the Korean breeding cycle. Recently, the Korean beef cattle industry is undergoing structural changes such as scale-up, specialization, and increase in integrated breeding, and this has been reflected in the model. The explanatory power of the model was 0.92, which was very high, and the MAPE was 2.38%, indicating that the model had excellent predictive power. As a result of forecasting the number of Korean beef cattle, it is predicted that it will gradually increase from 3.4 million in 2021, reach the maximum level of about 3.85 million in 2026, and then decrease. The results of this study are expected to be useful for resolving the supply and demand instability in the Korean beef cattle market and the management risk of farms.