A Study on the Correlation between Ship Movement Characteristics and Ice Conditions in Polar Waters

Abstract

The opening of arctic routes provides a new option for international navigation ships. The correlation between ship movement characteristics and ice conditions should be known, which will help ships adapt to the polar waters. Based on the voyage data and sea ice manual observation data of the ‘XUE LONG’ ship’s six voyages in polar waters, a correlation analysis model of ice conditions and ship movement characteristics was established in this work. First, the ship movement characteristics in polar waters were analyzed, such as the distribution characteristics of ship speeds, courses, and variation characteristics by using the descriptive statistical analysis method and data visualization analysis method. Then, by using multivariate correlation analysis and univariate controlled correlation analysis methods, the correlation between movement characteristics and ice conditions, such as ice concentration and thickness, and the correlation between different ice conditions themselves, were quantitatively analyzed. The result shows that the correlation analysis model of ice conditions and ship movement characteristics is reliable and effective and can obtain quantitative correlation analysis results. On the one hand, sea ice thickness has almost no significant correlation with ship movement characteristics, excluding the influence of sea ice concentration. On the other hand, excluding the influence of sea ice thickness, sea ice concentration is still significantly correlated with the absolute value of speed, speed variation, and course variation. The conclusions of this work have important reference significance for polar scientific investigations, commercial ships’ voyages in icy waters, and ships’ designs for icy waters.