A study on indicator system for early-warning on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic

Abstract

To establish an early-warning indicator system on outbreak of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome by Delphi method seeking expert advices. Firstly, the literature review and the experts meeting method were used to formulate the initiator frame work and indicators. A two-round consultation was used to filter indicators, discuss the boundary of indicators and determine the weighting coefficient among 25 experts from 14 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The relative weightiless of indicators was determined by the weight coefficients method. The experts' average length of service in prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was (23.80 ± 11.70) years. The positivity coefficients of the two-round experts were 100% and 72%. Kendall's coefficients of the two-round consultation were 0.50 (χ(2)(R) = 148.95, P < 0.01) and 0.54 (χ(2)(R) = 212.63, P < 0.01) and opinions among experts became consistent and the consultation had achieved the need of forecast. Four first-class indicators (host animals, risk population, social environment and case-related indicators) and 14 second-class indicators were filtered to develop the indicators system. The weight coefficients of the first-class indicators were 0.28, 0.23, 0.23 and 0.26. The early-warning index system of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome has been established and it could provide a reference for the forest and warning of HFRS outbreak.