Study of space distribution law of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Kaijiang county, Dazhou city, Sichuan province

Abstract

Objective To study the space distribution probability model of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,so as to provide basic information for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome prevention and control policy making.Methods Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were used to fit the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome deaths spatial distribution in Kaijiang county,Dazhou city,Sichuan province between 1979-2010.Results The actual distribution of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Kaijiang county was not Poisson distribution (x2 =40.64,P ＜ 0.01),but subjected to the negative binomial distribution(x2 =1.86,P ＞ 0.50).Conclusions The space distribution of death cases of HFRS in Kaijiang county is not random,but has strict regional aggregation,which may be related to the local medical conditions,patient' s lack of knowledge about health care and other factors. Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome; Death cases; Poisson distribution; Binomial distribution