Abstract
We conducted a study on climate-driven flash flood risk in the Boise River Watershed using flood frequency analysis and climate-driven hydrological simulations over the next few decades. Three different distribution families, including the Gumbel Extreme Value Type I (GEV), the 3-parameter log-normal (LN3) and log-Pearson type III (LP3) are used to explore the likelihood of potential flash flood based on the 3-day running total streamflow sequences (3D flows). Climate-driven ensemble streamflows are also generated to evaluate how future climate variability affects local hydrology associated with potential flash flood risks. The result indicates that future climate change and variability may contribute to potential flash floods in the study area, but incorporating embedded-uncertainties inherited from climate models into water resource planning would be still challenging because grand investments are necessary to mitigate such risks within institutional and community consensus. Nonetheless, this study will provide useful insights for water managers to plan out sustainable water resources management under an uncertain and changing climate.
Highlights
Climate variability and change continues to increase the risk and frequency of floods for inland communities in the United States (US) [1,2,3,4]
Based onduring the evidence of a larger proportion of snowmelt-driven volumeof during springtime volume springtime leveraged by temperature increase, streamflow potential impacts climate change leveraged by temperature increase, potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the western on streamflow in the western states are likely increasing [12,17]
Frequencyanalysis, the magnitudes of a single hydro variable, such as annual maximum flood peak is widely used in hydro communities
Summary
Climate variability and change continues to increase the risk and frequency of floods for inland communities in the United States (US) [1,2,3,4]. 2 2ofof snowfall increases potential risks of flash flood in the snow-dominated watershed. Floods may increases in potential of flash flood in the snow-dominated may due intensify in intensify many risks regions where total precipitation is evenwatershed. Based onduring the evidence of a larger proportion of snowmelt-driven volumeof during springtime volume springtime leveraged by temperature increase, streamflow potential impacts climate change leveraged by temperature increase, potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the western on streamflow in the western states are likely increasing [12,17]. Investigate how future variability can characterize potential flash flood risks in the BoiseweRiver. Using both flood frequency analysis and future ensemble ensemble streamflow generations with climate inputs, potential flash flood events are analyzed.
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