A study of the pathway to peak carbon in China

Abstract

The achievement of the peak carbon target is a complex and comprehensive project that involves vari-ous aspects such as the economy, society, and ecological environment. At the same time as reaching the carbon peak, how to balance economic and social development has become an important issue. This study uses the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model to predict China’s carbon peaking situation. Three key parameters, namely carbon peaking, economy, and society, are selected, and relevant decision variables are established. A multi-objective planning model is developed to facilitate the coordinated development of carbon peaking, economy, and society, which is solved using a sequential algorithm. The results show that: China’s carbon emissions were 6928.905 million t in 2020 and are expected to reach the carbon peak in 2030. At the peak, the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to be 16 281.95 $, correspond-ing to a per capita CO2 emission of 9.66 t. During China’s carbon peak, the GDP is projected to be 23 249.58 billion $, with an arable land area of 121 747 510 ha and sulfur dioxide emissions of 180.64 million t, meeting the expected target values. However, certain indicators such as the ratio of three industries, energy consumption, rural residents’ per capita disposable income, and water consumption fall short of expected. Based on these findings, relevant countermeasures have been proposed for the realization path and key breakthroughs for China’s carbon peak.