Abstract
BackgroundWeather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue.MethodWe collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations.ResultsWe found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run.ConclusionOur results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-015-0075-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag
Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence
We noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis
Summary
This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. The popular local belief is that “dengue rises after a rainy spell by increasing vector population.”. We believe there is a need for a better understanding of dengue weather correlation patterns after diagnosing many patients with the infection during drought periods. A certain number of rainy days is generally favorable for mosquito development [1]. Rises in temperature increase the biting rate of the vector, shorten egg to adult development time, and reduce the extrinsic incubation period of the dengue virus [2]. Temperatures between 15–30 °C reduce adult vector mortality. The optimum temperature range for mosquito development is 25–27 °C [4].
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