The correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature of Colombo district, Sri Lanka 2005–2014

Abstract

BackgroundMeteorological factors affect dengue transmission. Mechanisms of the way in which different diurnal temperatures, ranging around different mean temperatures, influence dengue transmission were published after 2011.ObjectiveWe endeavored to determine the correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal temperature ranges (DTRs) in Colombo district, Sri Lanka, and to explore the possibilities of using our findings to improve control of dengue.DesignWe calculated the weekly dengue incidence in Colombo during 2005–2014, after data on all of the reported dengue patients and estimated mid-year populations were collected. We obtained daily maximum and minimum temperatures from two Colombo weather stations, averaged, and converted them into weekly data. Weekly averages of DTR versus dengue incidence graphs were plotted and correlations observed. The count of days per week with a DTR of >7.5°C and <7.5°C were also calculated. Wavelet time series analysis was performed to determine the correlation between dengue incidence and DTR.ResultsWe obtained a negative correlation between dengue incidence and a DTR>7.5°C with an 8-week lag period, and a positive correlation between dengue incidence and a DTR<7.5°C, also with an 8-week lag.ConclusionsLarge DTRs were negatively correlated with dengue transmission in Colombo district. We propose to take advantage of that in local dengue control efforts. Our results agree with previous studies on the topic and with a mathematical model of relative vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti. Global warming and declining DTR are likely to favor a rise of dengue, and we suggest a simple method to mitigate this.