A Structural Decomposition Analysis of China’s Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Haidi Gao,Alun Gu,Gehua Wang,Fei Teng

doi:10.3390/en12152843

Abstract

The trends of consumption-based emissions in China have a major impact on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous studies have only focused on China’s energy-related consumption-based emissions of CO2 or specific non-CO2 GHGs without taking overall consumption-based non-CO2 GHG emissions into account. Based on a constructed global non-CO2 GHG emissions database, combined with CO2 emissions data, this paper fills this gap through an examination and analysis of China’s GHG emissions using a global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model for 2004, 2007 and 2011, and identifies the major factors driving changes in consumption-based emissions through a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results show that compared with CO2 emissions, CH4, N2O and F-gases emissions all increased more rapidly. Among consumption-based non-CO2 GHG emissions, investment-based emissions experienced the fastest growth, but the net exports of non-CO2 GHG emissions dropped drastically in recent years. While investment in total final consumption demand is the most influential factor for CO2 emissions, household consumption most significantly affects the growth in consumption-based non-CO2 GHG emissions.

Highlights

Global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions must decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero around 2050, according to the October 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ◦ C above pre-industrial levels [1]
In line with the Peters’ et al methodology [60], a global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model is proposed for analyzing consumption-based emissions, and the MRIO table is drawn based on data from non-competitive input–output tables of various countries and regions in the GTAP 9 database
From 2004 to 2011, China’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continued to grow, with production-based emissions contributing more, but at a lower growth compared to consumption-based emissions

Summary

Introduction

Global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions must decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero around 2050, according to the October 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ◦ C above pre-industrial levels [1]. This requires the control of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Consumption-based emissions allocate emissions to all consumer activities within a country and encompass emissions from domestic consumption and emissions embodied in imports. The gap between production-based and consumption-based emissions increases for most countries [3]

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion