A Stress Release Model in Egypt

Abstract

The complexity of seismogenesis calls for probabilistic rather than deterministic model. Towards that direction, the stress release models transpose the elastic rebound theory in a stochastic framework, where the stress level in a region increases gradually between earthquakes due to constant tectonic loading and is released suddenly when an event occurs. The data are modeled through point processes and particularly by means of the hazard function. The application is performed using moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 4.8) occurred in Egypt and the model is compared with the Poisson model by means of information criteria.