Linked stress release model and its application on earthquake data in java and sumatra

Abstract

Elastic rebound theory explains stress release model in which stress will increase deterministically and decrease stochastically because of earthquake. Based on earthquakes occurrences, an area interacts with the other areas. Stress movement and interaction among areas have not been considered in stress release model. In this article, stress release model is developed into linked stress release model by considering interaction among areas. This model can be stated through conditional intensity function depending on accumulated stress release when earthquake occurs in a sub-region within a time period. The conditional intensity function is presented by exponential hazard function where each region has different hazard function stating that each region has specific characteristic. This research data consists of earthquake data occurring in Java Island and Sumatra Island during the period of January 2010 to December 2016. By using maximum likelihood estimate method, estimation of conditional intensity function of linked stress release model for earthquakes in each region is obtained. Probability of earthquake occurrence in southern Java is the same as probability in northern Sumatra. Most of proportion of accumulated stress in northern and southern Java is derived from their own regions while most of proportion of accumulated stress in northern and southern Sumatra is derived from other region.