A Strep A vaccine global demand and return on investment forecast to inform industry research and development prioritization

Abstract

Investment in Strep A vaccine R&D is disproportionately low relative to the large burden of Strep A diseases globally. This study presents a novel Strep A vaccine global demand and financial forecast model with estimates of potential global demand and associated revenue and profits for a hypothetical Strep A vaccine as well as a net present value (NPV) analysis of return on capital investments required to develop the vaccine. A positive NPV was calculated for a variety of developer scenarios and target populations, including the global rollout of the vaccine in private and public markets by a multinational pharmaceutical corporation and a staged rollout by a developing country vaccine manufacturer for both infant and child populations. The results suggest there is a viable commercial market for a Strep A vaccine. It is hoped that this study will help to inform industry decision-making and drive increased prioritization of, and investment in, Strep A vaccine research and development.