An Autonomous, Real-Time Asset Management System for the International Space Station: Net Present Value Analysis

Abstract

*† ‡ This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis for a real-time, autonomous inventory management system for the International Space Station (ISS) based upon Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology. This paper describes a Net Present Value (NPV) analysis of a possible application of the system to the International Space Station’s cargo transfer bags. Quantities such as crew time, cargo launch volume, and cargo launch mass were monetized to allow comparison of costs and benefits, and several different implementation scenarios were evaluated. The analysis found that the application has marginal or negative value under conservative assumptions, but possibly significant positive value when inventory transactions are concentrated in a subset of the total cargo transfer bag population, and/or if ISS Operations are continued into 2018/2020. We show that a modest concentration of inventory transactions – for example, 75% of transactions occurring in the 50% of the bags that are RFID equipped - results in a positive mean NPV of approximately $46.8 million, and an 84% probability of a positive NPV. Also, a gradual Phase-In Implementation Scenario – as it is modeled in this work – is inferior to a more rapid deployment of the system via Modification Kits.