A Strategy for Scaling ERA5 Sea Winds Using Climate Model Data

Abstract

<p>Over the past decade, reanalysis data products have found widespread application in many areas of research and have often been used for the assessment of the past and present climate. They produce reliable atmospheric fields at high temporal resolution, albeit at low-to-mid spatial resolution. On the other hand, climatological analyses, quite often down-scaled to represent conditions also in enclosed basins, lack the historical sequence of stormy events and are often provided at poor temporal resolution.</p><p>In this context, we investigated the possibility of using the ERA5 reanalysis 10-m wind (25-km and 1-hour resolution data) to assess the Mediterranean Sea wind climate (past and scenario). We propose a statistical strategy to relate ERA5 wind speeds over the sea to the past and future wind speeds produced by the COSMO-CLM (8-km and 6-hour resolution data) climatological model. In particular, the probability density function of the ERA5 wind speed at each grid point is adjusted to match that of COSMO-CLM. In this way, past ERA5 winds are corrected to account for the COSMO-CLM energy, while ERA5 scaled wind sequence can be projected in the future with COSMO-CLM scenario energy. Comparison with past observations confirms the validity of the adopted method.</p><p>In the Venezia2021 project, we have applied this strategy for the assessment of the changing wind and, after WAVEWATCH III model runs, also the wave climate in the Northern Adriatic Sea, especially in front of Venice and the MOSE barriers, under two IPCC (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios.</p><p>In general, this strategy may be applied to produce a scaled wind dataset in enclosed basins and improve past wave modeling applications based on any reanalysis wind data.</p>