A stochastic modeling approach for analyzing water resources systems

Abstract

Many uncertain factors exist in the water resource systems, leading to dynamic characteristics of the water distribution process. Especially for the watershed including irrigation area with multiple water sources and water users, it is complicated that the joint risk among available water from each water source and multi-uncertainties under water resource allocation among multiple water users. In this research, an approach is developed that a copula-based interval multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (CIMFSP) model. This research aims at figuring out the planning of a case study for water-resources management. In the multi-sources water supply subsystem, the copula function is introduced to tackle the interaction of water availability between two water sources (i.e., A &B). Joint risk was set 0.05, 0.10, 0.15 to reflect the shortage risk of total available water at diverse levels. An interval parameter multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (IMFSP) model is developed for water resource distribution in a multi-users water-demand subsystem. Through this model, uncertainties presented as interval numbers and probability distributions, as well as fuzzy sets, were handled. The dynamics of the entire water resource system can be reflected by multi-stage discrete trees. A series of solutions can be generated under multiple scenarios (i.e., joint risk and α-cut levels). The modeling results will produce a series of alternatives under a battery of scenarios and help the decision-makers get an insight into the tradeoff between the system economic benefit and financial penalties under the corresponding risk level. This approach is valuable for improving the feasibility of optimal results in the watershed with irrigation region water resource management.